USSR: The Past and The Future

The prospect for the human race is sombre beyond all precedent. Mankind are faced with a clear-cut alternative: either we shall all perish, or we shall have to acquire some slight degree of common sense. A great deal of new political thinking will be necessary if utter disaster is to be averted.
the first known recorded comment on atomic weapons
Bertrand Russell, 18 August 1945

On July 9, 1955, a group of prominent scientists, including several Nobel laureates, revealed to the world a manifesto, in which they expressed their ultimate concerns about the danger that loomed large over the world. In that manifesto they called upon the world's policy makers in the hope that they will listen and correct their thinking, as the new situation demanded at the time. It is most likely that we are alive today because their voices were heard and acted upon.
Initiated by Albert Einstein and Bertrand Russell, that manifesto explained the dangers of the nuclear war to general public – the dangers we all do not even consider needing an explanation today, yet 60 years ago most people including the world leaders did not understand them. At that time the mainstream thinking about war was still operating on the scale of ruining cities and conquering countries, and the reality and imminence of nuclear contamination that could eventually destroy the whole planet's biosphere and inevitably result in annihilation of human race should the global nuclear war take place was still not realized by anyone except scientists.

Today we are facing a similar challenge. On May 13, 2013 a scientific consensus was written by today's world's most prominent scientists. This document clearly states the dangers that are upon us as a human race, and outlines the most important necessary changes that are imperative if we want to survive and let our children have the same quality of life that we are all used to. In just half a year more than 500 world's leading scientists signed that document, and many more started working on trying to convey that information to the world leaders, and yet in today's world of busy and loud informational space it was barely noticed.

It is of utmost importance that current policy makers become aware of the existence of this document and of the problems described in it because these problems and the speed of our response to them will, undoubtedly, shape the future of our planet, our children and our grandchildren.

Our rapidly changing world faces 5 global challenges, as outlined in The Scientific Consensus on Maintaining Humanity’s Life Support Systems in the 21st Century: climate change, extinctions, loss of diverse ecosystems and ecosystem services, pollution, and population growth and over-consumption. These global problems have already started to shape the courses of current economy, and they will continue to have more and more profound effect on economy in general and Japanese economy in particular. If we do not act immediately to deal with these problems, not only will that inaction result in substantial degradation in human quality of life by the year 2050, but it will also tax us with billions of dollars of economic losses, in all of the developed countries.

The detailed description of each of the problem can be found online in the original version of the consensus. Here I will outline briefly those which are most important for Japanese economy.
The first problem is the climate change, which translates into longer and more intense heatwaves, the increasing frequency of storms and the change in ecosystems that affect both quality of life of Japanese people and the economy. To give an example, heatwaves, although they may seem to many in the general public as a simple inconvenience, are actually powerful natural disasters. For instance, the European heat wave of 2003 killed over 72,000 people – that is 4.5 times greater than the number of people killed in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Heatwaves in Japan occur with rising intensity every year; in 2013 the summer heatwaves sent to hospitals nearly 54,000 people, resulting in additional economic pressure on the Japanese healthcare system. The cited scientific models predict that even if we act now to attempt to stop the climate change immediately, global temperatures will still continue increasing for at least 80 more years, raising demand for electrical power necessary for air-conditioning and having negative impact on workplace productivity and healthcare system. However, if we delay our action, according to scientific models, the current trajectory of climate change will bring us to the situation when some areas where people live now will become uninhabitable by the end of this century.
At the same time sea levels are predicted to rise 1-2 meters, having a major impact on large coastal cities like Tokyo and Osaka. Current estimates suggest that millions of people will have to be permanently resettled. Additionally, the frequency of damaging storms like typhoons will increase by 50% - 200%, and crop yields are projected to decline, which is particularly important for Japanese food market that, according to the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, relies on import of foreign food products, especially meat and seafood, by 60% and can no longer support people's diet without imported food. Spread of infectious diseases and other climate change related human health costs are anticipated to be $2-4 billion per year worldwide, and Japan is no exception in this regard, either.

With the current rate of species extinction the world will see loss of 75% of vertebrate species (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fish) within as little as 300 years. Besides the loss of life-fulfilling amenities, such as beauty of nature's diversity and opportunities for recreation, this extinction will lead to tangible losses of ecosystem services such as moderating weather, filtering drinking water, and stabilizing fisheries, which is particularly important for Japan, the country currently consuming over one third of all fish catch in the world.
One of the consequences of ecosystem transformation is increased pollution, and it is no longer limited to any particular region of the world. Air pollution in Beijing can be seen from space and it is certainly felt in Japan. Air pollution in year 2010 was estimated to cause 6,000,000 deaths worldwide. 19% of cancer incidence in the world is thought to be caused by environmental exposure. With the added radioactive pollution from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, Japanese population is at risk of more frequent development of mutation-related diseases such as cancer in the coming years. Another concern for Japan is that two of some of the biggest “dead zones” in the world oceans are near Osaka and Tokyo. Dead zones result from nitrogen pollution which causes green algae to die; the process of decay of the dead organisms sucks the oxygen out of water, having grave impact on marine life in general. Various chemicals such as herbicides, pesticides and pharmaceuticals released into the ocean are taken up by organisms and bioamplified, so that every one of us on Earth carries these persistent chemicals, many of which are hormone stimulating endocrine disruptors that lead to obesity, higher rate of heart diseases and diabetes.

Finally, there is an urgent problem of population growth, and as much as people in Japan are concerned about supporting ever-aging majority of its population, the growing number of people in the world will inevitably affect Japanese economy in a negative way. Many projections indicate that as many as 2.5 billion people are likely to be added to the currently living 7 billion 178 million people (estimated at the time of writing this essay). Each person produces roughly 5 tonnes of CO2 per year, and although this number varies from country to country the net effect is spread evenly throughout the Earth. Consumption however is not spread, and if every person on the planet alive today gets the standard of living of an average American (which is admittedly a goal of a large part of the developing countries' population), we would need about 6 Earths to sustain material consumption. For Japan this translates into lower availability of food and natural resources. With most of Japanese nuclear power plants closed down and the problem of peak oil (steady decrease in oil production globally projected after 2012) it is easy to imagine that energy cost will likely become a major problem slowing down Japanese economy.

These prognoses are supported by the multitude of sound scientific evidence, the facts they are based on have been highlighted in literally thousands of scientific papers in peer-reviewed scientific journals and summarized in consensus statements. However, due to the current popularity-based priorities of public media, to the increasing information overload of every member of the society (which includes CEOs and people of similar positions of power), and to the lack of adequate communication between the scientific community and the policy makers, it has been difficult to convey this information to the leaders of global businesses and governments. And yet we cannot even begin to address the problems outlined above until universal recognition of their existence is achieved.

Solving these global crises is a difficult task; however, it is not an impossible one. For comparison, the challenges Japan had to face after the war, when the country was devastated, were significantly greater. And yet the cooperation of manufacturers, suppliers, distributors, banks and the government allowed for an economic and technological miracle. In just several decades Japan went from a third-world country to a country with one the highest levels of quality of life in the world. Large scale infrastructures were built, such as highways and railroad systems, dams and airports, and at the same time Japan managed to create developed industry with capacities allowing for export of electronics and cars of superb quality at reasonable prices. In the course of just several decades 1,271,572 km of roads, 2,800 dams and more than 70 airports were built, with Tokyo airport alone having over 65,000,000 passengers a year. In just 40 years Japan went from the first single “pokeberu” to 130,000,000 cell phones connecting the majority of its population! To solve the current crisis efforts of similar scale are necessary, and it can be accomplished. What needs to be done is development and deployment of new systems of transportation and generation of electrical power; passing national laws and international agreements that would prevent further species loss and protect the environment; radically change the methods of food production; and curb population growth in developing countries through education and implementation of regulations similar to the Chinese “one-child policy”. Starting to develop and introduce these changes in Japan would help other countries follow suit and help Japan end the long economic stagnation by opening new markets and presenting new technologies ready to be exported.

The areas in which changes could, and ultimately should be introduced are so vast and numerous that it is impossible to cover them all in this short essay limited to 4000 words. Moreover, it is unlikely that any one person could give an appropriate and truthful strategy of solution to these problems in all their entirety, because each of them requires attention of different professionals in each respective field. I am a research biologist who belongs to Kyoto University, and I wish, to the extent of my professional expertise, to give an example of what can be done in one of the currently advancing technological areas, and I suggest that the reader extend this example to other areas of human enterprise.

Biological technologies are arguably the fastest developing area at the time of writing this essay. The first sequencing of the human genome took 15 years and 4 billion dollars to accomplish in 2003. Since that time, in just 10 years, the worldwide capacity to sequence DNA rose to 100,000 human genomes per year, and the cost of sequencing a base has fallen 100 million(!) times. This kind of change is equivalent to filling up your car with gasoline in the year 2000, waiting until 2013, and now you can drive to Jupiter and back twice. This growth is much faster than the Moore's law – the observation that in computer industry the processing speed, memory capacity, sensors and even the number and size of pixels in digital cameras are improving at exponential rates (for example, the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years). In biological sciences we made a leap of logarithmic scale, and it is not showing any signs of slowing down.

Japan has a great potential in this field that might revolutionize the way medicine, food production and agriculture are done today, making Japan the world leader in these technologies. Success of Japanese economy in the world context relies on export, and as developing countries such as China become more and more self-sufficient in production of everyday goods, the main product Japan can rely on will be advanced technologies such as those used to produce hybrid cars.
Biomedical technologies hold very high potential specifically for Japan (as for a number of other countries) for several reasons. One of the reasons is the existing high level of Japanese medical scientists (#4 in global citations in scientific journals (“Paper tigers” The Economist, Mar 29th, 2011), #5 in overall number of research papers published worldwide (“365 Days: 2011 in Review”, Nature, December 21st, 2011), and #3 in number of research papers per capita (“Neil deGrasse Tyson on the Decline of Scientific Research in America”, Science, Jan 2nd, 2012)).
Another important reason why Japan has an advantage in bio-technological leadership is not immediately visible for those who live in Japan because it's difficult to make a comparison from within the country, it is that Japanese people are far less religious than most of the population of Europe and America, which constitute the major competitors to Japan in this field. Religious communities in these countries significantly thwart the development of biological technologies. Stem cell research is basically banned in the US; radical groups in Italy steal animals from experimental facilities (in April 2013 activists occupied an animal facility at the University of Milan, Italy. They released mice and rabbits and mixed up cage labels to confuse experimental protocols, which created such chaos that researchers say it will take years to recover their work); European protesters campaign against GMO, and eight EU member states already banned the cultivation of genetically modified (GM) crops (“Poland bans cultivation of GM crops“ Europolitics, Jan 7th, 2013).
In a striking contrast Japan saw no protests in the past 20 years that would seriously impede the development of bio-technologies, probably due to a more science-oriented and generally secular mentality of the population. While in America, according to a YouGov poll, only 21% of the population currently believe that human beings are a product of biological evolution without the involvement of God, Japan almost completely accepts this scientific fact (78% of the population have no doubts about it whatsoever). While approximately 80% and 50% of the population in America and Europe respectively consider themselves religious, 70% of Japanese population say they do not hold strong beliefs (http://www.pitzer.edu/academics/faculty/zuckerman/atheism.html). Moreover, with the recent national success of Prof. Yamanaka's research that won him a Nobel Prize, general public in Japan is even more open and willing to promote advancement of bio-technologies.
If the policy makers in Japan realize this, and, instead of taking the all so familiar route of changing the policies to mimic those of America, would choose to divert from American path, it could give Japanese economy a significant advantage and possibly make it a global leader in biomedical technology. If combined with proper financing of the field, it would most likely attract some of the most promising young world scientists who wish to develop this area of research but are held back by current conservative policies enforced by religious public in their own countries.

I would like to briefly outline some examples of life science areas which hold promise in respect with economic development.

Perhaps one of the most important areas of biological sciences which is connected both to solving the global ecological crisis and to ensuring stable and sustainable economic system in Japan is the area of agricultural genetic research.
Green Revolution refers to the decades after the Second World War when extensive use of various technologies such as pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers as well as new breeds of high yield crops were employed to increase global food production up to 3-4 times. It saved billions of people from starvation and malnutrition, freeing the developed world from fear of hunger. One of the elements instrumental for development of this technology was Japanese wheat cultivar Norin 10 developed in Iwate. The cultivar was genetically different (which was achieved by conventional breeding techniques), such that its stems were shorter. It was necessary because when wheat is grown with excessive use of fertilizers the plants accumulate nitrite, become heavier and fall over reducing the yield. With the use of shorter wheat genes new cultivars were able to withstand their own weight and give higher yield.
However miraculous this advancement may be for the past decades in the sense of solving the hunger problem, there is a significant downside to it, which will inevitably come to sight in the next 50 years. This type of agriculture, with its extensive use of fertilizers, must rely on constant availability of oil and gas because pesticides and fertilizers are made using fossil fuels, and farming itself is done using petroleum-run machines. With the rising prices for natural resources, it is apparent that this situation is unsustainable in multiple ways: not only food availability depends of fossil fuels abundance and cost, but constant growth of population and increasing consumption lead to more and more nitrogen pollution from fertilizers which, in turn, creates dead zones in the ocean and undermines large ecosystems. It is imperative that we develop and employ genetically modified crops that do not require high amounts of pesticides and fertilizers. We need a new agricultural revolution if we want to shift to a sustainable economic regime.
The field of genetic engineering is quite famous so there is no need to say the obvious. The only point that demands addressing is that governments and business leaders need to realize that without embracing GM crops we contribute to the destruction of ecosystems. Western religious groups have created a lot of bad publicity for GMOs, but scientifically speaking these new crops have proven to be far safer and more environment-friendly than conventional crops. If only the widespread anti-GMO campaign (such as labeling products with “does not contain GMO”) could be reversed, pressure on the environment could be relieved; besides, it could give the economy a long-awaited boost by introducing and encouraging of development of new technologies. It could be accomplished by an advertising campaign with the use of modern psychological knowledge. For example, create positive attitude towards GMOs in food producers could use colors usually associated with safety – like a label “GMO in use” in a green circle with a cute green leaf: this would make consumers understand that this product is attractive and actually safe and healthy.
Besides, there are many new food production technologies available that people are not aware of: this year the first artificial hamburger was made using muscle cells grown in a laboratory dish; right now its cost is over 200,000 dollars, but we need to remember the speed of development of bio-technologies: if manufactured on large scale such artificial meat could potentially be the only available option for growing populations of China and India, and could give great returns to investors in this technology.

Another problem that present a hidden opportunity is aging population of the developed world. According to some researchers householders in the oldest age group (65+) are the most wealthy group in terms of mean net worth in Japan. This group represents potentially over a trillion dollars which could boost Japanese economy if that money were put into economic cycle. And yet it is the least financially educated group. Biomedical technologies of health support, on the other hand, are one of the essential necessities for humans, same as food or water, and they might be the next big market product for which older population will be willing to pay. Japan can be said to be one of the potential future leaders in the field of stem cell research which is deeply connected to anti-aging therapy. Major steps in organ regrowth and replacement area have been recently made by Japanese researchers (creating whole organs like a liver or an eye in a dish!). If Japanese government cooperates by creating policies that allow research in this area, and by promoting investment in the business start-ups using this research, as well as in basic research science, Japan has a good chance in taking over American and European counterparts.

Stem cell research – is a young and quickly developing area with great implications, and it is difficult to say how many directions this research will split into, if allowed. A lot, however, can also be done in smaller, more matured areas of relatively recent bio-technologies, that already showed the results and gave us government-approved appliances. Small electronic bio-appliances are likely to become a new booming market as more and more baby-boomers are aging and at the same time learning to handle computers, cell phones and applications. An example of such type of device is a “Smart Tooth” – a miniature appliance that can register how much time a person spends on chewing, drinking, coughing or smoking. The scientists say that this information will allow a doctor to discern symptoms of respiratory diseases and food disorders. It looks like a normal tooth, but a sensor inside it collects data on the movements of the jaw, and a special computer program translates these data into meaningful information. The software could identify which activities (coughing, chewing) people were engaged in with a 94% accuracy, and then send that information to a computer or a smartphone.
Such appliances, capable of monitoring health and disease of older population, could become as ubiquitous as cell phones, and might present an unmatched opportunity for Japanese market.

Finally, growing health awareness in younger population also produces a demand for computer applications for portable devices. With DNA sequencing becoming more and more popular, software programs that personalize diets and exercise regimes, or determine how closely related you are to, say, the Emperor, might draw younger people's attention. Additionally, genetic consulting which is already booming in America is a currently unexplored market in Japan.

In the conclusion, let me briefly summarize the contents of this essay.
The future of Japanese economy will inevitably be affected by the world crisis that the best scientists of today say is imminent. They have compiled the document titled "Maintaining Humanity's Life Support Systems in the 21st Century," that was drafted specifically to raise awareness among world leaders and the general public of the urgency of addressing five intertwined global problems: climate change, extinctions, loss of diverse ecosystems and ecosystem services, pollution, and population growth and over-consumption. It also includes some broad-brush solutions that might be useful to policy-makers.
It is imperative to obtain information about the danger we all face as human beings, to acknowledge the problems at hand and start to find solutions as soon as possible because any delay will lead to a sharp increase in the cost of handling the situation. Besides obvious need to address the problems, Japan has a good opportunity to become a leader and show the world the way out by embracing current scientific advances and promoting the best technologies. This way Japan can also avoid further stagnation and drastically improve its economic situation.